Morning Market Briefing 10/30
3 Things To Know For Today
1. Major Data Points: The calendar is lighter after Thursday's batch, with the Q3 Employment Cost Index (forecast +0.8%, versus +0.9% prior) and the MNI Chicago PMI for October (forecast 54.6, versus 58.8 prior). Thursday's numbers set the tone: Q3 GDP grew 3.4% (versus a 3.2% forecast and 2.2% in Q2), while the September PCE price index came in at 3.6% year over year and Core PCE at 3.1%, both in line with forecasts. Strong growth with sticky inflation keeps the roughly 85% odds of a December hike alive.
2. Other Major Financial News: Thursday night's earnings turned an AI wobble into a rout. Amazon missed on EPS ($1.89 versus about $1.97 expected) and slightly on revenue ($201.9 billion), guided Q4 revenue at a midpoint just under consensus, and said it expects about $220 billion in 2026 capex, leaving trailing free cash flow at negative $42.4 billion despite AWS growing 39%. Intel plunged roughly 23% after hours on a weak outlook, and Amazon fell about 7%. ExxonMobil, Chevron, and AbbVie report before the open.
3. Market-Adjacent News (Iran War): Oil is higher on signs the U.S. could resume strikes on Iran, with WTI near $103 and Brent between $112 and $115, up roughly 12% in October. Iran has yet to answer Qatar's draft deal (a response was expected by the end of the week), and Iran says tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran's answer pending, weekend headlines are a risk for Monday's open.
Yesterday's Price Action
Thursday was all about Alphabet: it closed down 12.64%, its worst day in more than 20 years, erasing roughly $500 billion of market value and dragging the Nasdaq down 1.4% to 26,185, even though most S&P 500 stocks actually rose. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,720.39 and the Dow fell 0.3% to 52,343 (Caterpillar dropped about 9%), while the Russell 2000 gained 1.0% to 2,859 as money rotated away from AI leaders. The 10-year yield eased to roughly 4.95% to 4.99%. After the close came the second leg down: futures this morning show Nasdaq-100 down about 2%, S&P 500 down about 1%, and Dow roughly flat, so NQ and ES open Friday with the AI spending trade being repriced in real time.
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Quote Of The Day
“You can't predict. You can prepare.”
– Howard Marks
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