3 Things To Know For Today
1. Major Data Points: It's Election Day, and the market is also getting September JOLTS at 10:00 AM ET (job openings expected near 7.1 million, quits 3.09 million, layoffs 1.66 million) and September factory orders (forecast +1.1%). Monday's ISM Manufacturing already beat at 55.5 versus 54.5 expected, with production up and the prices index easing. Investors are watching the midterm results and ballot initiatives for signals on policy affecting pharmaceuticals, housing, and AI data centers, with Friday's October jobs report (consensus 55,000) still ahead.
2. Other Major Financial News: Apple and Palantir both beat and both fell. Apple grew revenue 12% on strong iPhone sales but missed on Greater China, and shares are lower in premarket. Palantir raised its full-year revenue outlook and, for the first time, U.S. commercial sales topped U.S. government sales, yet the stock slid anyway. AMD reports after today's close, and AI funding is the thread: Oracle fell nearly 9% Monday on a plan to sell $10 billion of stock alongside a $10 billion bond sale, and Marvell dropped about 13% on an all-stock deal for Lumentum.
3. Market-Adjacent News (Iran War): Brent closed down 7.6% Monday at $104.77 on peace-talk hopes, as Foreign Minister Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within two days if Washington meets a series of conditions (ending the naval blockade, lifting oil sanctions, and halting fighting on all fronts). Trump called the talks “going fine” but Iranians “not very reliable,” and did not rule out a return to war this week, while Secretary of State Rubio said no decision has been made. Axios reports Netanyahu urged Trump to resume strikes right after the midterms, so this week's headlines can cut either way for crude.
Yesterday's Price Action
Monday was a rotation day: the Nasdaq fell 1.1% to 25,164 and the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% to 7,541.40, while the Dow rose 0.4% to 51,984 as money moved out of tech and into industrials, financials, and consumer names like Home Depot and Sherwin-Williams. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.2% to 2,806. Falling oil helped consumer-facing cyclicals even as energy names sagged (Exxon dropped about 4%), while chips stayed under pressure after Friday's rout. This morning futures are mixed (Dow futures down about 0.7%, S&P down about 0.2%, Nasdaq-100 slightly higher), the 10-year yield is near 4.89%, and the VIX sits around 21. NQ and ES open Election Day with the market trying to find a floor after a month of AI-driven selling.
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Quote Of The Day
“Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars.”
– Bernard Baruch
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