3 Things To Know For Today
1. Major Data Points: ADP private payrolls hit at 8:15 AM ET and ISM Services follows at 10:00 AM ET, two reads on whether the labor market and the services economy are still holding up with rates at 3.75%-4.00%. Uber and McDonald's report today, along with Qualcomm, Arm, and AMC. Friday's October jobs report is the main event for the week, with consensus near 55,000 jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate, versus 29,000 the prior month.
2. Other Major Financial News: Democrats won control of Congress in the midterms, according to CNN, NBC, and PBS, and futures are higher on the removal of election uncertainty. The twist is that the AI trade is also bid, even though Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor's race on a platform that includes pausing new data center projects, so stricter data center regulation is the risk to watch for AI spending. AMD beat after the close (adjusted EPS $2.09 versus $1.95 expected, revenue $13.4 billion, up about 45%) and is up roughly 5% in the after-hours session.
3. Market-Adjacent News (Iran War): Oil is quiet by recent standards, with Brent near $103 and WTI near $96 this morning after Monday's 7.6% drop on peace-talk hopes. Qatar is stepping up its mediation efforts, but there is still no deal, and Trump has not ruled out a return to strikes. With the midterms now over, headlines can cut either way for crude, so watch for gaps in CL that bleed into the equity index futures.
Yesterday's Price Action
Election Day finished split between tech and everything else: the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,568.92 and the Nasdaq gained 0.8% to roughly 25,372, ending three-day losing streaks, while the Dow slipped 0.4% to 51,786.72 and the Russell 2000 added 0.2%. Chips led the bounce (the iShares Semiconductor ETF rose about 2.5%, with Nvidia up 2%, Broadcom up 3%, and AMD up nearly 4% ahead of earnings), while Apple fell about 2% on weaker margin guidance and Palantir slipped despite a beat. The 10-year yield rose to roughly 4.97%. This morning futures are firmly higher (NQ up about 0.9%, ES up about 0.9%, YM up about 1.3%) with the 10-year back near 4.92%, which sets up a gap open above Tuesday's range. The question for the New York session is whether NQ and ES hold that gap through the initial balance, or fill it as ISM Services lands at 10:00 AM ET.
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Quote Of The Day
βIt never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.β
β Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
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